India is characterized by more ethnic and religious groups than most other countries of the world. Ukraine has also often tended to look at China and other Eurasian powers from the ‘Western perspective’, which limited its options. He is a student at Brigham Young University where he is completing a degree in Middle Eastern Studies and Arabic. In Pakistan, an increase in militant violence targeting state forces in KP and Balochistan indicates a resurgence of the TTP network and the Baloch separatist movement in each province, respectively. He is going to pursue a Master of Arts in International Relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. In the recent past for example, there have been numerous instances of ethnic conflict including ethnic war Nevertheless, as long as neither of the. When comparing 2019 and 2020, estimated militant fatalities doubled as a result of offensive state military actions. Further international involvement in the conflict is also likely, including a potential shift in the reluctance of the Mozambican government to accept direct military support. The United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), an ethnic Rakhine group fighting for greater autonomy, announced a unilateral ceasefire, which the military then reciprocated. On 3 December, the killing of an indigenous leader led to the displacement of around 900 members of an indigenous reserve in the rural area of Bahia Solano municipality, Chocó department, amid fears of escalating violence (InSight Crime, 10 December 2020). Or they may have considered the existence of different ethnicities but set the borders to exercise power by the divide et impera method. Given the disjointed and distorted reporting and planning of this conflict,  questions are being asked by international and national actors alike about conflict patterns more broadly in Ethiopia, and how secure the state is going into 2021. The South Ossetians even asked Abkhazians to cooperate. The US government’s designation of the Houthis as a “terrorist organization”, which went into effect on 19 January, just before the Biden administration took power, could also contribute to increased humanitarian fallout. Following the Bolshevik revolution of 1917, which saw Russian armies’ withdrawal from the Caucasus, the Menshevik Georgian government took control of Abkhazia in 1918. International monitoring of ceasefire violations in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, conducted by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), stopped due to restrictions on movement during the pandemic. The rising death toll can be partially attributed to the increased presence of competing armed groups in historically conflict-affected areas, such as in the Cauca, Valle del Cauca, Nariño, Antioquia, Chocó, and Norte de Santander departments. The confinement has facilitated intimidation by armed groups that know these leaders’ locations. Curtis Goos is a Research Analyst at ACLED. Administrative recognition and dominance are the basis of most conflicts that the Abiy government confronts, which have been incentivized by suggestions that Abiy may try to alter the basis of ethno-nationalist territorial claims to authority. Ali Mammadov. What took 20 years, thousands of lives, and trillions of dollars to construct disappeared in little more than a week. 1962 to 1964 — Seeking autonomy, Tuareg ethnic groups rebel in the north. The document outlines China’s willingness to invest in railways, airports, and ports, as well as telecommunications infrastructure across Ukraine. If a compromise is not reached, a surge in nationwide demonstrations can be expected. ). There was almost no problem during the period between the creation of the USSR and its collapse. Additionally, there has been an alarming increase in killings since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, with more killings reported between April and December 2020 compared to the same time period in 2019 (ACLED, 5 October 2020). Once implementation begins, demonstrations and violence are likely to renew and escalate. Improving the regional links is a cornerstone of Turkey’s position in the South Caucasus. Several countries have publicly offered support, including Portugal — Mozambique’s former colonial power — and the United States (, ). Timothy’s research interests center on the relationships between religion and conflict. Found inside – Page 283In the same region that sparked World War I 80 years prior—the ... was simply the latest horrific chapter in a centuries-long regional and ethnic conflict. Regardless of their true intentions, the conflicts seem to have taken their roots from those decisions. Misreading Afghan ethnic conflicts cost two decades and trillions of dollars. Marib is the anchor and stronghold of the internationally-recognized government, and losing the city might enable the Houthis to further advance towards the nearby oil fields and the desert areas of Shabwah and Hadramawt governorates. However, the reason it is mentioned here is that the involvement of any other major power bloc as a third-party makes ethnic conflicts less likely to be resolved. Unrest boiling over and leading up to an August 2020 coup d’état underscored the complexity and uncertainty of Mali’s crisis. However, there was a significant shift when comparing conflict patterns of violence in the past two years. Author’s note: first published in caucasuswatch. The rise of gang violence is likely connected to the end of President Jovenel Moise’s constitutional mandate on 7 February 2021 and to the upcoming elections scheduled for September 2021. In the same vein, successes in negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis over border insecurity could lead to a significant decrease in the Saudi war effort. To add to the preexisting tension, a new law allowing Indian citizens from other states to claim residency and purchase land in J&K has sparked concerns over potential demographic changes that would render the Kashmiri Muslim majority a minority. Protesters have also denounced police abuses, especially following the killing of a student by law enforcement in October. On 27 September, Artsakh authorities reported that the Azerbaijani army had attacked military and civilian infrastructure in the region, including in the de facto republic’s capital, Stepanakert (Ministry Defence of Artsakh, 27 September 2020). In November, a local leader was beaten to death at the Nangua IDP camp in Metuge, accused of being responsible for a deadly outbreak of cholera in the camp. With a national march planned in February 2021, culminating in Islamabad, anti-government discontent is set to continue, and may escalate (, ). Sanctions Against Belarus: A Hybrid Option, Russia Derails South Caucasus Path to Peace. The Indian Ministry of Home Affairs issued a list of 10 Islamist militant organizations operating in the state to be eliminated, including LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), and Al-Badr, among others (National Herald India, 6 October 2020). Georgian-American ballet choreographer George Balanchine famously said, “Ballet will speak for itself,” and the artform remains a true demonstration of the universal language of dance. During 2020, ACLED records more than 1,600 fatalities in the province, more than three times the number of fatalities reported in 2019. The opening up of the border is essentially an opening of the entire South Caucasus region. These constraints, along with insurgent incursions into neighboring Tanzania, are pushing the Cabo Delgado conflict into an increasingly internationalized theater. This thesis examines ethnic conflicts in contemporary Fiji through historicizing this social phenomenon. With state forces stretched by the conflict, the government has increasingly relied on support from private security forces, most notably the Dyck Advisory Group (DAG), and local self-defense militias. They likewise seek control of areas where Amhara people live outside of the region and are being persecuted. NB Wikipedia is a useful starting point for this topic as it provides us with a statistical and historical overview which is relatively easy to understand, but keep in mind that you’ll need to verify sources and check up on how valid the data is!. Her research interests include ethno-nationalist conflicts, communal violence, and non-state armed groups and gender. In the context of the peace process, former FARC and ELN combatants who decided to reintegrate into society are also at higher risk of attack. While some attribute the massacre to gang warfare, others claim that it was a government-led attempt to quell the protest movement (Le Nouvelliste, 25 May 2020). The text's expansive coverage of race and ethnic relations across the globe highlights major points of difference and similarity between the United States and a number of other societies, as well as includes a unique case study comparing ... Bhavani Castro is the South America Research Manager at ACLED. Each year, ACLED identifies 10 conflicts or crisis situations around the world that are likely to worsen or evolve in the coming months. Moreover, the two sides will need to walk a tightrope as a potential blowback from nationalist forces in Turkey and Armenia can complicate the process. The Lukashenko regime has refused to give in to the demands, and has instead floated superficial reforms while cracking down on demonstrators in an effort to weaken the movement. Ethnic differ-ences are the single most important source of large-scale conflict within Found insideSpecifically, says Anna Ohanyan, only the cultivation and establishment of regional peace systems can provide an effective path toward conflict management in these standoffs in such intractably divided regions. ‘They killed people using knives, arrows, and guns.’. In addition to militant clashes with authorities, several targeted attacks against members of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were carried out by Laskhar-e-Taiba (LeT), leading to the death of at least nine politicians. Lockdown restrictions, coupled with an increased counterinsurgency focus against militancy across India, have reportedly weakened the Naxal-Maoist operational capacity (Economic Times, 28 June 2020; The Diplomat, 31 August 2020). Russia, China and EU are pushing towards de-dollarization: Will India follow? In an alleged attempt to address armed violence in the country, President Moise signed two presidential decrees on national security on 26 November, establishing the National Intelligence Agency (ANI), an institution meant to curb terrorism. These cookies do not store any personal information. For the short period from 12 to 16 July, the clashes resulted in the deaths of five Armenian soldiers and 16 Azerbaijani soldiers, including two high-ranking Azerbaijani officers. In 2021, the world will be dealing with the aftermath and sifting through the debris. Found insideExplaining the dynamics of the politics of settlers in contested territories in several contemporary cases, this book illuminates how settler-related conflicts emerge, evolve, and are significantly more difficult to resolve than other ... A state of emergency was declared for one year and the military announced that it would reconstitute the Union Election Commission and eventually hold new elections. Artsakh Republic. The presidential decree widens the definition of “terrorism”, to include extortion, usually perpetrated by gangs, but also the obstruction of traffic with barricades, a common practice used by demonstrators (CEPR, 14 December 2020). In other words, the closed borders have always constituted the basis of Russian power in the region as most roads and railways have a northward direction. Found insideThis report is part of WHO's response to the 49th World Health Assembly held in 1996 which adopted a resolution declaring violence a major and growing public health problem across the world. The conflict in Ethiopia between the federal government and the former administration of the northern Tigray region, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has dominated headlines since clashes began in early November 2020. The opening of the 300 km border running along the Armenian regions of Shirak, Aragatsotn, Armavir, and Ararat could be a game-changer. A year later, Georgia and Russia agreed to invest in South Ossetia to get it recovered from the effects of the war. Against this backdrop, anti-war demonstrations in 2020 by youth activists were met with state repression. Found inside – Page 1968... the violent ethnic conflicts resulting from that country's breakup. ... former Serbia and Montenegro membership now officially represents Serbia alone. In addition, the president has nominated members of the Independent Advisory Committee, a body in charge of drafting the new constitution  (Constitutionnet, 12 December 2020). However, it remains unlikely that this move will destabilize the government, as Prime Minister Khan has stated that the government will hold elections for any vacated national assembly seats (. The Ukrainain school of ballet is gaining recognition as one of the world’s best and Ukrainian ballet dancers are headlining the top ballet companies across the globe, showcasing their immense talent and training. The number of kidnappings for ransom in 2020 also spiked compared to 2019, with at least 27 kidnappings recorded by ACLED. Ethnic violence in Ethiopia has forced nearly 3 million people from their homes. In the 19th century, Russia decided to give the southern part of Ossetia to Georgian feudal landowners. Found insidePathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. However, except for the OSCE, no organization took responsibility. As the Sahel crisis nears a decade, numbers of events and fatalities from armed, organized acts of political violence in 2020 surpassed 2019’s full totals in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Ethiopia, Yemen, and the Sahel were previously highlighted in our 2020 series, and their re-inclusion here underscores how these conflicts have changed substantially in the preceding year, and how new risks continue to emerge. Besides militant struggles, a new alliance of opposition parties, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), aims to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan, accusing the army of installing him during the 2018 elections (The Guardian, 16 October 2020). An independent Georgia would certainly try to take its autonomy, and therefore, the Abkhazians wanted the Soviet Union to remain. Further contracts have reportedly been signed with DAG, as well as with Paramount Group, a military supplier, as the foremost support mechanisms for the Mozambican government (Africa Intelligence, 10 December 2020). The spreading conflict in today's Ethiopia is no different," Mamdani said. Although the president tasked the newly created ANI with addressing rising insecurity in the country, tackling violence and corruption will require long-term structural reforms of the criminal justice system. Baku will try to influence Ankara’s thinking lest the rapprochement goes against Azerbaijan’s interests. This declaration naturally angered Georgia, and small-scale armed conflicts occurred between the Georgians and the Abkhazians. Fatalities remained on par with 2019 even though 2019 experienced a spate of unprecedented mass atrocities. Burkina Faso has shown to be particularly vulnerable, being the epicenter of the humanitarian crisis. In 2020, sexual violence tripled compared to 2019, suggesting that gangs increasingly use rape as a weapon of war. Even if a rupture between the government and its armed wing is unlikely in the near future, this new official positioning against the gang reveals a crack in this alliance amidst mounting international pressure. CDT Spotlight: Continuing Conflict in Jammu & Kashmir, COVID-19 and Political Unrest In Northeast India, CDT Spotlight: Continuing Conflict in India. The border determination in the joint statement is vague, indicating that the sides should stay at the positions they occupied as of 9 November 2020. For Turkey an open border with Armenia is also beneficial as it would allow a freer connection with Azerbaijan. As long as one side in the conflict believes it can overpower the other militarily — as Houthi forces currently do — the conflict will not end. By the end of December 2020, there had been an average of 11 killings per week, a trend likely to continue in 2021. This post has been written mainly for students studying A-level sociology (AQA focus). We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. ). Despite an intensive air campaign by the Saudi-led coalition to stop the Houthi offensive, pro-Hadi tribes and military forces are losing ground. Aside from the increased fighting in Kayin state, the military deployed its forces to checkpoints that have previously been manned by the Kayin Border Guard Force (BGF) in December. This led to worsening relations between the two. She previously managed ACLED’s Southeast Asia desk. As such, Ukraine appears to be embarking on a multi-vector foreign policy. These numbers may rise in the future as, according to specialists, the demining process might last another 15 to 20 years (, Finally, the political crisis is likely to persist in Armenia. This trend has also been observed outside of Port-au-Prince, with similar radio threats made in July by a gang leader in the Sud-Est region of the country, following a demonstration against rising insecurity. Her research interests include geopolitics, conflict prevention, minority rights and challenges faced by civil society organizations across Latin America and the post-Soviet space. One way or another, China looks set to play a bigger role in Ukraine‘s foreign policy. Maria Gerth-Niculescu. President Moise was elected in 2016 after a first election round held in 2015 that was suspended for fraud. As a result, Georgia was condemned both by the Ossetians and the Soviet Union. Armed groups have also implemented curfews and strategies of coercion under the guise of sanitary measures against the coronavirus in order to exert control in disputed territories. The NLD has long sought to change the undemocratic charter while operating within its parameters. For five years together with youngsters I wrote, directed and staged a performance piece titled ‘Contact Line’ about life at the warzone and personally witnessed the huge impact of arts and culture on the kids’ lives. Though eventually unsuccessful (on March 1, 2018, Armenia announced the cancellation of the protocols), Ankara has often stressed the need of improvement of ties with Yerevan without demanding preconditions. Companies and organizations may not want to risk the liability exposure that comes with shipping products to Houthi-controlled territories (, ), and the designation may disrupt remittance flows, upon which as many as 10% of Yemenis rely (, ). The ongoing successes of the Cabo Delgado insurgency have left the Mozambican government under pressure from several countries, especially those interested in LNG developments, to press ahead with intensifying its security response. Prior to the outbreak of inter-ethnic armed group conflict, the RCSS/SSA-S had been engaged in clashes with the military at a higher level than in years past. More importantly, the five-year plan stresses that Armenia will approach the normalization process “without preconditions” and says that establishing relations with Turkey is in “the interests of stability, security, and the economic development of the region.”. Allegations of collusion between political elites and the G-9 gang were fueled by reports that G-9 members have been travelling in police armored vans and have built their arsenal through state-sponsored weapons donations (Loop, 15 December 2019). Large-scale demonstrations by people in Kayin state calling for the military to leave the area have also been reported (Karen Information Center, 8 January 2021). Franklin is a Europe Research Manager at ACLED. The report came as the security situation in Afghanistan has remained stable since the Taliban's takeover of the country in mid-August. ). The results of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war present Turkey and Armenia with an opportunity to pursue the improvement of bilateral ties. 2021 Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan conflict. Security forces reportedly used the coronavirus lockdown to obtain better intelligence inputs and to crackdown on militancy in the region (New Indian Express, 7 May 2020). The African country of Rwanda has a long history of ethnic conflict. Abere Adamu, Commissioner of the Amhara Regional State Police Commission, recently requested that his force be made responsible for solving the crisis in Benishangul regional state, or that the federal government intervene (, Amhara Mass Media Agency, 7 December 2020. Scene has made a significant increase in reported fatalities and conflict recorded in and... 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